投资股票时应该要以投资债券的心态
兵荒马乱的六月﹐我得到安抚内心涟漪的良药﹔阅读塞思.卡拉曼(Seth A. Klarman)的著作‘MARGIN OF SAFETY Risk-Averse Value Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor’。
‘Intelligent Investor’ 讲述Safety Of Margin的篇幅有限﹐对投资新人可是不容易了解和吸收。Seth A. Klarman 针对了这点﹐以各种角度协助读者了解Safety Of Margin的思想。
如欲得到Safety Of Margin﹐就得要了解Security Analysis﹐这是无法分开的﹐是必需的。
The essential point is that security analysis does not seek to determine exactly what is the intrinsic value of a given security. It needs only to establish that the value is adequate(足够), to protect a bond or to justify a stock purchase-or else that the value is considerably higher or considerably lower than the market price. For such purposes an indefinite(含糊) and approximate(近似) measure of the intrinsic value may be sufficient.
成功的投资是没有特别秘诀﹐Safety Of Margin是建筑在超级保守的分析。
Businesses, unlike debt instruments, do not have contractual(契约) cash flows. As a result, they cannot be as precisely valued as bonds. Benjamin Graham knew how hard it is to pinpoint the
value of businesses and thus of equity securities that represent fractional ownership of those businesses. In Security Analysis he and David Dodd discussed the concept of a range of value.
所谓的Businesses即是指企业(股票)。
既然前辈苦口婆心劝告没有明显的方法可以预测未来将如何变化﹐所以投资者仍须遵循价值投资的理论。通过广泛的基本分析﹐严守规则﹐以无尽的耐心来控制风险﹐减少损失﹐价值投资者便可以预见不错的成果﹐而且下跌风险有限。
整个‘Security Analysis’ 里﹐佔最大篇幅和讲述最多的是债券。原因在于﹕
我们投资股票时应该要以投资债券的心态﹐即是现金流入固定和可预测﹐
投资是为了现金流入+避免损失